A Wakeup Call

Liberals edge ahead of Conservatives, says poll

Updated Mon. May. 11 2009 11:00 PM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

The Liberals have pulled ahead of the Conservatives in national voter support, propelled by surging numbers in Quebec where they have virtually tied the Bloc Quebecois, according to a new Strategic Counsel poll.

The survey, conducted May 6-8 for CTV and the Globe and Mail, shows the Liberals with a slight lead across the country.

Here are the national results (difference between 2008 federal election results in brackets):

• Liberals: 35 per cent (+9)
• Conservatives: 30 per cent (-8)
• NDP: 16 per cent (-2)
• Green Party: 11 per cent (+4)
• Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (-1)

Support for the Liberals has grown steadily since a Dec. 3 poll, when the party was at a low of 24 per cent. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have bled support since that poll, when they had a high of 45 per cent.

"This poll, and other polls, are probably ensuring there won't be an early election," Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel told CTV.ca Monday.

The Liberals would need the support of the NDP and Bloc to bring down the government, but the poll suggests those parties -- especially the Bloc -- lack enough voter support for a successful outcome.

Quebec has seen the biggest change, with the Tories sinking 13 per cent since the last election:

• Bloc Quebecois: 39 per cent (-1)
• Liberals: 37 per cent (+13)
• Conservatives: 9 per cent (-13)
• NDP: 9 per cent (-3)
• Green Party: 8 per cent (+4)

Donolo said the last few months have shown a trend where the Bloc is slowly losing potential votes to the added benefit of the Liberals. The gap between the two parties hasn't been so small since at least 2003, he said.

"They're not down compared to their election results, but over the last few months they've been trending down," he told CTV.ca. "And the Tories are back to where they were before the 2006 election, which is nowhere."