Special Interest Groups Get Their Supporters To The Polls.....

...unions, waterfront condo owners, island squatters, social in-activists, environuts, etc. while we ABMers don't seem to have any cohesive rallying group.

Miller's foes need more ammo TheStar.com - Opinion - Miller's foes need more ammo

September 19, 2009

Royson James

Thursday's by-election result shows that a lot of the noise generated by the political class doesn't always filter down to the voters.

The McGuinty Liberals managed to sail along with an easy victory, despite headlines of spending scandals at government agencies and supposed angst over the harmonized sales tax.

Either the St. Paul's riding is incurably Liberal, as defeated Conservative Sue-Ann Levy says, or voters are content with life in Ontari-ari-ari-o. Well, in St. Paul's, at least, where midtown Toronto living can be easy, even in a recession.

This may be instructive for those looking to take on Mayor David Miller next year.

Prospective challengers must figure out if Miller's low popularity – just 21 per cent in one poll said they'd vote to re-elect him – is a temporary phenomenon. Is there enough meat on which to build a lasting campaign or will the attacks wither as next May and June run into crunch time in October 2010?

For example, despite complaints about the Liberals, St. Paul's voters didn't seem angry about health care, education or the economy – main drivers of voter discontent.

Similarly, civic voters may be upset about the results of the 39-day municipal strike, but Miller's opponents will need much more to sustain voter anger and disapproval at a high enough level to prompt constituents to turf the incumbent.

Every potential candidate, and their bagmen and eggers-on, say the city needs "leadership." But what does this mean? How to translate this yearning and attach it to city policies with Miller's fingerprints on it?

In fact, Miller's fingerprint is clearly on primarily positive initiatives like making Toronto greener, bike lanes, helping priority neighbourhoods and Transit City. He'll also take credit for the low crime rate, a relatively stable business climate, improvements on the waterfront, in social housing, and incremental changes we barely noticed.

Some political operatives claim their circle of friends feel it's time for a change. But Miller's opponents will be tasked with saying more than, "Miller didn't do enough" or that he handled the strike badly. That locomotive will run out of steam by midsummer. The successful challenger will have to craft a vision of a city that captures the imagination. Otherwise, voters will inevitably settle with the devil they know.

City elections rarely attract as many as four in 10 eligible voters, and incumbents must like it that way. Even the entertaining and invigorating five-way contest of 2003 – Barbara Hall, John Tory, John Nunziata, Tom Jakobek and Miller – didn't swell the voting ranks.

In theory, a new candidate with something special could change the calculus. Maybe. Fresh ideas and newcomers bring new voters, creating a different electoral soup.

Barack Obama did not greatly increase voter turnout in the U.S., despite massive interest among many who barely paid attention before. What he did was attract a new set of voters – many of them young.

Conversely, many traditional voters, those who felt their candidate had no chance against the rising star, stayed home on voting day.

Here in Toronto, ex-Conservative leader John Tory and Liberal Deputy Premier George Smitherman are both considering a run for mayor. Unless they craft a very different vision of our city – one that delivers cherished services but in an innovative way and opens the city to more citizens – they'll find discontent in 2009 can peter out to apathy in 2010.

Email: rjames@thestar.ca