Iggy Moment

Steve Janke: The game changes, but Liberals are still not playing

Posted: November 10, 2009, 4:35 PM by NP Editor

I have no credibility is discussing Quebec politics. Everyone, it seems, says the game is played differently there. If you don't live there, you just don't get it. Fine. I'll accept that at face value.

So why did the Conservatives contest two Bloc-held ridings, and come away with one of them in what is being called a game changer? Lots of reasons obvious to people like me, and maybe some only understood by others familiar with these unique Quebec dynamics. But that it is significant is clear:

The Conservative government put the Bloc Quebecois on notice Monday night with its byelection win in a Bloc stronghold, proving that its fortunes in Quebec are stronger than pundits predicted, experts say.

Conservative candidate Bernard Genereux won in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup by more than 1,400 votes over Bloc candidate Nancy Gagnon, grabbing a riding that's been held by the BQ since 1993.

The win "is a game-changer off the island of Montreal," L. Ian Macdonald, editor of Policy Options magazine, told CTV.ca in a telephone interview. "This is a Bloc bastion that has fallen to the Conservatives not by a few votes but by 1,500, five points."

Nowhere in the preceding quote are the Liberals mentioned, because even as the game is changed, the Liberals are still not playing.

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How many bad days can Michael Ignatieff have in a row?

Posted: November 10, 2009, 1:43 PM by NP Editor

The votes are in and the conclusion is that the four federal byelections held Monday are definitely .... over.

Phew. So much punditry devoted to so little. Other than polls taken when no election is in sight, byelections may be the most over-analyzed events in federal politics.

Reuters opens its coverage of the results with this:

Canada's ruling Conservative strengthened their grip on power on Monday when they unexpectedly won two extra seats in Parliament in special elections, making it even less likely they will be brought down any time soon.

Hmm, what exactly does that mean, "strengthened their grip on power"? Before the byelections, the Tories had a minority government. Now ... they have a minority government! They have two more seats than before, but can still be defeated by the combined forces of the opposition. So, how is that stronger?

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