I Would Call Into Question Dion's Leadership Skills

But he has failed to show that he has any leadership skills either while he was in the liberal cabinet, during the "leadership race" or since parliament opened.

Dion stripped of his environmental edge Liberal leader will pay dearly if he wins next election and can't deliver on costly, divisive promises
February 16, 2007
Chantal Hébert

Over a period of little less than three months, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion has turned his green armour into a straitjacket.

Now that he has led the opposition parties into passing a bill forcing the Conservatives to implement the Kyoto Protocol, the worst thing that could happen to him would be to win a snap election this spring and then be forced to live by the terms of Bill C-288.

A Liberal government would face two stark choices:


# Preside over a major federal-provincial crisis that would make the occasional Ottawa-Quebec blowouts sound like Chinese New Year firecrackers.



# Own up to the fact that the bill the party sponsored is a legislative sham, on par with the 1993 Liberal promises to eliminate the GST and renegotiate NAFTA.



It is one thing to want, as do a majority of Canadians, the federal government to act in the spirit of Kyoto; it is another to pretend that any regime can live up to the letter of the accord without making some highly divisive and costly choices.

There is a widespread consensus – stretching way beyond Conservative ranks – that Canada cannot even come close to meeting its Kyoto greenhouse emission reduction objectives in time for the 2012 deadline without launching a major offensive against the energy industries of provinces such as Alberta, and/or inflicting a crippling hit to the already flagging auto industry in Ontario, and/or diverting a debilitating amount of federal resources to a single cause.

And that, in turn, means the other parties have Dion exactly where they want him, stripped of his environmental edge in the lead-up to a possible election.

Nothing now distinguishes the Liberal bottom line on climate change from that of the NDP, the Bloc Québécois and the Green party.

Dion is as saddled to the moribund Kyoto battlehorse as Gilles Duceppe, Jack Layton and Elizabeth May. More so than any of them though, he could be crushed under its weight in the next election.

Among the opposition leaders, only Dion, who sat for a decade in government, stands to be called to account for how far behind Canada has fallen on the road to Kyoto.

Bill C-288 ensures that the lacklustre Liberal performance on Kyoto will be as much a part of the picture of the next campaign as the Conservatives' belated conversion to a greener agenda.

Because Dion alone among the opposition leaders can realistically aspire to become prime minister, it is also on him that the onus of squaring what has now become a less than virtuous circle will fall in the next campaign.

That will be particularly hard in some sections of Western Canada and it won't be easy anywhere else.

Liberal economic and social promises will have to be tailored to Dion's professed commitment on Kyoto or else risk failing the test of fiscal responsibility.

The Liberal climate-change agenda will also be measured against the green makeover of the government.

By backing Kyoto to the hilt, Dion may have tilted the balance of credibility to Harper's advantage. The Conservatives could be one environmental package away from wrestling the upper hand from the Liberals. Such a package is expected to come at the end of March.

Last fall, the government's first green plan failed to meet the minimal test of expectations.

Back then, the government left its flank wide open on climate change.

This time, Harper knows that anything less than a substantial step in the right direction will not pass muster.

The government's upcoming environmental package is part of a set of blocks the Conservatives are putting in place with an eye to an election.

The re-election of federalist Quebec Premier Jean Charest next month is another big piece of their puzzle.

Conservative numbers are improving in Ontario; satisfaction with the government is up in Quebec.

If all his blocks fall in place, Harper could emerge from next month's budget with enough momentum to win another election.

Does that mean a spring federal vote is inevitable? Not necessarily.

It is still far from clear that an election over the first half of this year would yield the majority Harper is striving for.

Part of the current Conservative election sabre-rattling is undoubtedly designed to force the opposition to think twice about bringing down the government.

The Bloc Québécois, for one, may do just that if its Parti Québécois ally goes down to defeat in Quebec next month.


Chantal Hébert's national affairs column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday.